The reader's guide to our picks

Every match card on the site speaks a small dialect of probabilities and notation. This page unpacks the language. It is short on purpose — once you have read it, the rest of the site reads faster.

1. Read the projected score, not the bet The big LED number is the most likely scoreline our simulator returned across ten thousand iterations. It is not a guarantee; it is the median of a distribution. A 2–1 pick still leaves room for a 1–1 or a 3–0.
2. Treat the win probability honestly A 60% home win means the home side loses or draws four times out of ten. Confidence above 70% is rare in international football and almost never appears in knockouts.
3. Watch the xG edge xG edge is the difference between our model's expected goals for the home side and for the away side. A positive number leans home; a negative number leans away. Anything bigger than ±0.5 is a strong signal.
4. Use the form dots as a sanity check Five coloured dots show each team's last five competitive results. Lime is a win, amber is a draw, red is a loss. They are not the call — they are a quick read on momentum.
5. Read the analysis block The two or three lines under the probabilities are the human read of the matchup. When the analysis disagrees with the dots, trust the analysis — it carries injuries, lineup hints and tactical context the dots cannot capture.
6. Always check the matchday timestamp Picks update the morning of matchday and again three hours before kickoff once confirmed lineups arrive. If you are reading the previous day's version, key-player flags may have shifted.
7. Use predictions to learn, not to chase losses Our picks are an editorial product, not financial advice. Treat them the way you would a film review — informed opinion. Never wager money you cannot afford to lose, and if betting stops being fun, seek support from a licensed gambling-help service in your country.